Press review: Russia preps for NATO aid in Ukraine and Georgia’s vote may not shift policy

MOSCOW, October 28. /TASS/. Russia is preparing to counter NATO support for long-range Ukrainian strikes; Georgia’s ruling party secured a landslide victory in Saturday’s elections, and Israel has launched airstrikes against Iran. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines in Russia.
 
Moscow does not rule out the possibility of Ukrainian missile strikes targeting deep inside Russia. President Vladimir Putin stated that the Defense Ministry is considering this issue and will present various options for a response. He previously warned that the use of foreign-made long-range weapons against Russia would signify a state of war between Western countries and Russia. This, in turn, implies that any escalation of the Ukraine conflict or its expansion into Russian territory would lead to a military response directed at the West.
“The Russian General Staff is certainly contemplating such scenarios. While this issue is not publicly discussed, I am confident that the defense agency has options to respond to various potential military threats, not only from Ukraine but also from NATO countries. The alliance is apparently aware of this,” said Colonel (Ret.) Vladimir Popov, an independent military expert. According to him, the US and its allies have initiated the establishment of defense production facilities within Ukraine. Although the longer-range weapons produced with Western support will be considered Ukrainian, this does not mean that defense factories built on Ukrainian soil with US, German, or other Western investments will not be legitimate targets for Moscow, Popov argued, referencing Western media reports indicating that Ukraine is developing its defense production with backing from the US, the EU, and other entities.
German weapons manufacturers have already made significant contributions to this industry. Reports indicate that Germany’s Rheinmetall is constructing four plants in Ukraine, one of which is already operational, specializing in the repair and production of armored vehicles. Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger noted that the company is also working on establishing a gunpowder factory and a munitions plant, as well as launching production of air defense systems in Ukraine. Papperger clarified that his company will assist Ukraine in producing Skynex-type air defense systems with a range of up to 16 km, and that Ukraine currently possesses two such systems.
There is a clear rationale behind the US, Germany, and other NATO allies’ move to localize the production of long-range missiles, tanks, and infantry fighting vehicles in Ukraine, argued Lieutenant General (Ret.) Yury Netkachev, a military expert. “Kiev still harbors ambitions for revanche. Rheinmetall and other Western defense companies entering the Ukrainian market believe that this can be realized,” he emphasized. Russia must prevent this from occurring, the expert insisted.
 
Georgia’s ruling party, Georgian Dream, which has been in power since 2012, won Saturday’s election by a landslide. According to the Central Election Commission, it secured nearly 54% of the vote—comparable to its performance in the 2020 election—and is projected to gain around 90 seats in a 150-seat parliament, allowing it to form a one-party government.
Shortly after the election results were announced on Saturday night, reporters gathered in front of the Georgian parliament building. While the situation in Tbilisi remained calm, the defeated united opposition attempted to destabilize the atmosphere, as it had hoped to form a coalition government but received nearly half the votes of Georgian Dream. Of the 18 registered political parties, only four opposition parties surpassed the 5% threshold to enter parliament.
As the opposition contested the election outcome, they announced plans to initiate protests on October 27. However, the situation in the Georgian capital stayed peaceful on Sunday morning and afternoon. The opposition was likely awaiting responses and results from an international OSCE mission. OSCE observers deemed the voting legitimate, although they cautioned that they would monitor how the new government adheres to its European aspirations. Subsequently, the Georgian prime minister also recognized the election as legitimate.
Protests cannot be entirely ruled out, but they are unlikely to be large-scale, Vadim Mukhanov, head of the Caucasus sector at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, told Izvestia. “The international community is beginning to acknowledge the election results. If these results are recognized, opposition activity will likely diminish. Otherwise, the opposition may feel incentivized to escalate street protests,” he stated.
On October 27, Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili refused to recognize the election results, announcing that a protest would take place in central Tbilisi on October 28.
The future of Georgia’s relations with Western countries following the ruling party’s victory remains uncertain. Officially, Georgia continues to assert that it will stay on its European path. Previously, Georgian Dream stated that the country would pursue integration into the European Union “with dignity.” Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze expressed hope for a reset in relations with the EU and the United States starting in early 2025. However, skepticism persists in Europe regarding this possibility.
As for Georgia’s relationship with Russia, no radical changes are expected. “There is a strict red line in relations with Russia: it has recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, where military bases are deployed. At this stage, the Georgian government cannot afford to restore diplomatic relations, but economic, social, and cultural ties will develop, including in tourism,” political scientist Pyotr Mamradze noted.
 
Israel has officially conducted its first military operation against Iran, with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stating that they executed surgical strikes on Iranian military targets in the early hours of Saturday morning. The operation, codenamed Days of Repentance, was launched in response to an Iranian missile strike on October 1. That attack was a retaliation for an ongoing Israeli offensive in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, which included the assassination of several senior members of Hamas, Hezbollah, and high-ranking Iranian generals.
Both sides reported their successes and claimed enemy failures. The Iranian military reported strikes in the provinces of Tehran, Ilam, and Khuzestan, claiming that air defense forces successfully intercepted the majority of Israeli missiles. They stated that the projectiles that did land caused “minor” damage. The Shafaqna news agency reported that Iranian nuclear facilities remained unharmed. Additionally, Iranian lawmaker Abolfazl Zohrevand stated that several Israeli fighter jets and drones were shot down. Petroleum Minister Mohsen Paknejad confirmed that the country’s oil sector was unaffected and continues to operate normally.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian promised a “balanced and well-thought-out” response to the Israeli attack, extending condolences to the families of the deceased and the nation. The Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported that four Iranian servicemen were killed, though it did not provide further details. Iran’s mission to the UN requested an emergency UN Security Council meeting following the incident, labeling the United States as an Israeli accomplice. The Iranian General Staff indicated that Tel Aviv used an area in Iraq controlled by US troops to carry out the attack.
According to military expert Vladimir Yevseyev from the SCO Institute of CIS Countries, the United States sought to limit the fallout from Israel’s retaliatory strike. He suggested that classified information regarding the timing and methods of Israel’s strike was intentionally leaked to the media. Tel Aviv also provided prior warnings about the operation, stating it would avoid targeting Iran’s fuel and energy sector as well as its nuclear facilities. Yevseyev noted that the current situation does not necessitate an immediate response from Iran.
 
South Korea will seek permission from the United States to build and operate facilities for reprocessing spent nuclear fuel, South Korean Ambassador to Washington Hyundong Cho announced, specifying that this will be his country’s priority after the upcoming US election. While Seoul argues this measure is necessary to produce fuel for nuclear power plants and nuclear-powered submarines, experts do not rule out the possibility that South Korea may aim to develop the technological capability to create nuclear weapons.
The existing agreements on peaceful nuclear energy between the United States and South Korea do not authorize Seoul to reprocess spent nuclear fuel independently. However, the South Korean establishment has increasingly discussed that these restrictions are unjustified and that the country should possess the capacity to supply itself with fuel for its numerous nuclear power plants (the country currently imports enriched uranium for its 26 power reactors at eight nuclear power plants, with over 30% coming from Russia) and to produce fuel for nuclear submarines in the future.
Simultaneously, debates have resurfaced regarding the need for South Korea to develop its own nuclear weapons amid ongoing tensions with its nuclear neighbor, North Korea.
Proponents of a South Korean nuclear weapons program argue that it would enable Seoul to ensure its own security in any geopolitical situation. Skeptics contend that possessing nuclear weapons risks further destabilizing the situation on the peninsula, straining relations between South Korea and the United States, and leading to unforeseen economic consequences.
While the US has not yet commented on the ambassador’s statement, the Biden administration has previously opposed the idea of South Korea developing its own nuclear arsenal.
Anton Khlopkov, head of the Center for Energy and Security, informed Kommersant that South Korea appears serious in its intentions to become a nation with the technological potential to build nuclear weapons. Although there are no indications that Seoul has made a decision to initiate a nuclear weapons program, critical aspects, including renewed interest in acquiring technology for the processing of spent nuclear fuel, warrant a closer examination of the country’s nuclear policy, he stated. “One can assume that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has also been monitoring South Korean nuclear activity more closely,” the expert added. The IAEA has not yet provided a comment.
 
On October 25, the Board of Governors of the Bank of Russia decided to raise the benchmark interest rate from 19% to a record 21%. As CBR Governor Elvira Nabiullina explained, this decision was prompted by persistently high inflation, increased budget expenditures, and a widening budget deficit projected for 2024. Experts interviewed by Rossiyskaya Gazeta suggest that the CBR may increase interest rates again as early as December.
The decision to raise the key rate to 21% on Friday was anticipated. However, while the majority of analysts expected a 100 basis-point increase, a minority advocated for a 200 basis-point hike, according to Andrey Chelyuskin, an associate professor at the Institute of Social Studies at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA). “This will likely not be the last increase,” he stated confidently.
Not only did the regulator raise the key rate by two percentage points at once, but it also acknowledged the possibility of failing to reduce inflation to 4% next year, as noted by Bitkogan CEO Yevgeny Kogan. The central bank has raised its 2025 price growth forecast to 4.5%-5%.
“The central bank made it clear that further tightening of monetary policy is likely. The statement from the Bank of Russia suggesting the possibility of further rate hikes sends a strong signal that another increase is likely on the horizon. We will likely see another increase, to 22%, at the next meeting in December,” he explained.
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