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Negotiations in Doha on Thursday are being brokered by the US, Qatar and Egypt
Benjamin Netanyahu has been urged by his military chiefs to be flexible in the ceasefire negotiations opening in Doha on Thursday to avoid an all-out war with Iran.
The Israeli prime minister has also been warned that he will be publicly “called out” by the US if he tries to undermine negotiations, say diplomats.
Joe Biden told reporters ahead of the summit that it was his “expectation” that Iran would hold off on directly striking Israel if a ceasefire and hostage release deal could be agreed in the next few days.
Hezbollah, Iran’s Lebanese proxy, would also likely stand down, said Amos Hochstein, the US envoy.
A deal in Doha would “help enable a diplomatic resolution here in Lebanon and that would prevent an outbreak of a wider war”, Mr Hochstein told reporters after meetings in Beirut on Wednesday.
“There is no more time to waste and there’s no more valid excuses from any party for any further delay.”
Israel has been braced for twin attacks from Iran and Hezbollah ever since the killing two weeks ago of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s political leader, in Tehran, and that of Hezbollah’s number two in Beirut.
Both Iran and Hezbollah had promised to avenge the assassinations and “harshly punish” Israel, but on Monday Iran’s diplomats started to de-escalate, linking the country’s planned military response to the ceasefire talks for the first time.
Only if the “Gaza talks fail or it [Iran] perceives Israel is dragging out negotiations”, would Iran and its proxies strike Israel, Reuters reported one of three senior Iranian officials as saying.
The Axios news service on Wedensday reported that the heads of the Israeli security and intelligence services had told Mr Netanyahu, in person and in writing, that time was running out. They “emphasised that delay and insistence on certain positions in the negotiations could cost the lives of hostages”, said Axios.
The Israeli officials added that the prime minister had given them a “reasonable mandate” with flexibility enough to justify the delegation travelling to Doha.
William Burns, the CIA director, is scheduled to take part in the Doha talks, which are being brokered by the US, Qatar and Egypt. Antony Blinken, the US foreign secretary, is also expected in the region but did not travel as scheduled on Tuesday night.
Israel’s delegation will leave for Doha on Thursday. Its team will include David Barnea, the Mossad chief, Ronen Bar, the head of Israel’s Shin Bet internal security services, and Ofir Fleck, Mr Netanyahu’s personal political adviser.
On Wednesday night it was still unclear if Hamas would formally send representatives to the talks, despite optimism from the US on Tuesday that the Qataris would convince them to attend.
The Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported on Monday that the mediating countries had indicated to both sides that they would not hesitate to “publicly blame them” if a breakthrough was not achieved over the next few days.
This is because the outline of the proposed three-stage deal was agreed by both sides more than a month ago after Mr Biden outlined it on live television at the end of May.
“It has also been clarified to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the Biden administration – which until now has solely blamed Hamas for the talks’ deadlock – is reaching the point where Netanyahu’s behaviour would result in the White House publicly accusing him of harming the talks and preventing the release of the hostages,” Haaretz reported diplomatic sources as saying.
The Israeli defence establishment appears to have been caught by surprise by Iran’s political expediency and about-turn.
Senior figures in Israel’s defence establishment were confidently briefing earlier this week that twin strikes from Iran and Hezbollah were “inevitable” as both had been “humiliated” by Israel.
Many in Israel’s upper military and political echelons also regard the continued presence of Hezbollah in Lebanon as an “intolerable risk” for Israel in the aftermath of Oct 7.
Yoav Gallant, the Israeli defence minister, pushed for Israel to wipe out the terrorist group after the Oct 7 attacks but was reportedly talked down by the US.
More recently, Benny Gantz, another former head of the Israel Defence Forces who until recently was part of Israel’s war cabinet, has argued for “pre-emptive” strikes.
The US has mounted a huge military and diplomatic push to avert war in the region ahead of the presidential elections in the US in November.
It has moved substantial military assets into the region, including two carrier groups and two submarines armed with hundreds of Tomahawk cruise missiles.
On Wednesday, ambassadors to Israel from the UK, US and Germany called in a joint statement to agree to a deal for the release of hostages and a ceasefire in Gaza.
Steffen Seibert, the German ambassador, told a news conference in Tel Aviv that the “eyes of millions” would be focused on the Doha talks, which offered a political solution; a solution which would see the return of the hostages and the ability of “tens of thousands of displaced Israelis to return home” in the north.
The ambassadors also condemned Itamir Ben Gvir, the Israeli security minister, for his “provocation” in allowing Jews to pray at Temple House, a Muslim holy site.
David Lammy, the UK Foreign Secretary, also criticised the minister. “The UK strongly condemns Minister Ben-Gvir’s deliberately provocative visit to Jerusalem’s Holy Sites,” said Mr Lammy on X.
“The focus of all parties must be on securing an immediate ceasefire and the release of all hostages, and restoring regional stability”.
Israel said its forces hit 40 targets in Gaza on Wednesday and the Hamas-controlled health ministry said at least 39,965 people had been killed since the start of the war, with thousands still missing.
In a separate development, paintings by Pablo Picasso and Gustav Klimt were among the treasures moved into a bomb shelter by Tel Aviv Museum of Art to shield them from an Iranian attack.
The museum first started the process of protecting its art in wake of the Hamas attack on Oct 7 when the terrorist group launched waves of rockets at Israeli targets.
“Since the situation is not clear, and this threat is always there, we feel that the safe place for them is downstairs in the shelters,” Tania Coen-Uzzielli, the museum director, said.